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January 2, 2016 | El Predicto

A best-selling Canadian author of 14 books on economic trends, real estate, the financial crisis, personal finance strategies, taxation and politics. Nationally-known speaker and lecturer on macroeconomics, the housing market and investment techniques. He is a licensed Investment Advisor with a fee-based, no-commission Toronto-based practice serving clients across Canada.

Things that will happen (probably, I think) in 2016:

  • The average schmuck makes no money whatsoever on real estate in Montreal, Halifax, Oakville, London, or Victoria.
  • Canada slumps into negative growth until the spring, maybe even the summer.
  • Properties in Winnipeg, that flat, cold, boring province next door, plus Atlantic Canada outside of the HRM lose value.
  • Canada gets a national carbon tax. Liz May’s head explodes.
  • A property tax revolt starts brewing in the Lower Mainland after assessments flame higher just as house value start wobbling.
  • Calgary stays a disaster for anyone trying to sell a house. Street prices (not realtor prices) drop by double-digits.
  • The commercial vacancy rate in Cowtown passes 20%. Oil nears thirty bucks before it stabilizes – but below the level needed to stem fat job losses.
  • Five-year mortgage rates end the year 1% higher.
  • Moist Millennials and agents of the Bank of Mom create a pre-Valentine’s Day buying orgy, trying to beat the Morneau Rules on down payments.
  • As a result average prices in the GTA and YVR spin to a new record high. It will be the last one. Ever.
  • The TSX does not lose 11%. In fact, it outperforms the S&P 500 as commodities eventually creep back.
  • 2016 becomes the Year of Tax Avoidance for all the 1%ers, despite anti-incorporation measures announced in the spring federal budget.
  • A 1% increase in the HST is put off until 2017 by the T2 cabinet. You never hear about it.
  • The dollar slides briefly below 70 cents US. Most investors miss a once-in-a-generation chance to convert their US$ at $1.50.
  • Donald Trump becomes the Republican nominee, then blows up.
  • T2 mulls gender parity for the CFL.
  • Muclair quits. Rona ascends. Hillary wins. Notley withers.
  • Canada runs a deficit approaching $20 billion. Boomers are appalled. Their spawn, who actually have to finance it, don’t notice.
  • After dithering over a swampy economy for ten months the Bank of Canada raises its key rate on the 29th anniversary of the greatest stock market crash (22%) – Wednesday, October 19th.
  • ISIS shocks everybody.
  • Canadian household debt breaks more records. The finance minister tut-tuts, then does nothing about it.
  • Apple buys Tesla. Lululemon’s sold. Bombardier staggers.
  • The most popular baby names in Canada are Justin and Justina.
  • PostMedia implodes. Nobody cares.
  • GreaterFool receives an Order of Canada on the condition it becomes a dog-dating site.
  • We accept.

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January 2nd, 2016

Posted In: The Greater Fool

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