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December 6, 2015 | Real Estate has Peaked

Martin Armstrong

Martin Arthur Armstrong is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

Luxury Home


The US real estate market has turned for the top end has peaked. Luxury homes for the top 5% are now off by 2%. In my personal search in Florida, I looked around for the past year. Some of the high-end homes they showed me on the beach were still on the market. One that I looked at which just came on the market at $4.5 million has cost $7.5 million to build. It was a divorce. This end of the market the agent told me had been selling in cash deals, rarely a mortgage.

CNBC has reported that Redfin real estate company tracking the top 5% of  the more than 600 U.S. markets fell an average 2.2% in the third quarter compared to the same period last year. When the rich stop buying, the rest follows.

Government has ensured that real estate will collapse for you see the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act) combine certain disclosures that consumers receive in connection with applying for and closing on a mortgage loan under the Truth in Lending Act (Regulation Z) and the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (Regulation X). New disclosure requirements and forms in Regulation Z for most closed-end consumer credit transactions secured by real property have gone into effect with the turning point on the Economic Confidence Model. Government combined the existing disclosure requirements and implemented additional requirements imposed by the Dodd-Frank Act which applies to transactions for which the creditor or mortgage broker receives after the ECM turning point. This new legislation became effective October 3, 2015 with the ECM.

Real estate agents are reporting that mortgages are now taking far longer to process and approve and have caused transactions to come nearly to a halt. To get a mortgage, one must prove they have the capacity to pay it and must document everything that has gone through their bank accounts.

Real Estate Advertisement 2015


The World Real Estate Report will be sent to attendees next week. This will be placed on sale for everyone as of January 1st. The price will be $400 for both reports covering North America, Europe, Central & South America, Australasia, Middle East and of course Asia.

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December 6th, 2015

Posted In: Armstrong Economics

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