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November 29, 2015 | German Economist Concludes Refugees Will Ultimately Cost Germany €900 Billion

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
In contrast to the absurd Keynesian position that refugees will pay for themselves via higher growth rates, German economist Bernd Raffelhüschen estimates that over the long haul Refugees Will Cost Germany €900 brillion.Via translation … Bernd Raffelhüschen, director of the Research Center for Generational Contracts totals the cost of all government spending on refugees, including social insurance, over the life of a refugee.

At his Market Economy Foundation presentation, Raffelhüschen stated that “even with an integration of migrants into the labor market within six years, administrative fees in the long term will cost 900 billion euros.”

The article did not say the number of migrants on which the number was based, or whether the influx would continue and at what pace.

If one assumes 4 million total refugees, then each refugee would cost €225,000. Spread out over 30 years, the cost would be €7,500 per year.

I am not sure I buy the notion the cost will be that much “even with an integration of migrants into the labor market within six years“. Then again, I am quite confident a big percentage of the migrants will not be in the labor force within six years.

If Angela Merkel does not like Raffelhüschen’s numbers, then she should publish her own. Of course politicians never want to put a realistic price tag on their pet projects.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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November 29th, 2015

Posted In: Mish Talk

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