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September 18, 2015 | Mapping the European Refugee Crisis and Where the Path is Blocked; Chain Reactions! Walking Distance

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

As the refugee crisis in Europe builds, inquiring minds may be wondering where the refugees are coming from, where they want to go, and where they are blocked.

Here’s a map I put together starting from a map posted in the Financial Times.


Anecdotes in red and purple are mine.

Chain Reactions!

After being shut out of Hungary, Croatian Army on Alert as Almost 9,000 Migrants Surge into Croatia.

Croatia put its military on alert after almost 9,000 migrants surged into the country after being shut out of Hungary, which effectively closed its border this week.

Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic, president, took the move to protect Croatia’s border from illegal migration, the state news agency reported.

Croatian officials said they were at their limit, with as of Thursday evening a total of 8,900 migrants entering the country, the latest gateway to the EU for people from Syria and elsewhere. Ranko Ostojić, interior minister, said the country was now “absolutely full”, adding: “Croatia will not be able to receive more people.”

Just a day before, the Croatian government had said migrants were welcome to pass through Croatian territory on their way to ultimate destinations in Germany or Scandinavia.

Related Headlines

The message from Hungary should be clear, nonetheless the Wall Street Journal wrote just today Croatia Buses Migrants to Hungary Border.

An overwhelmed Croatia began busing migrants to Hungary as Budapest said it had started construction on a razor-wire fence at their shared border, in a chaotic day that left stranded migrants angry and confused.

As of Friday afternoon, Croatia had registered about 15,400 migrants who have made their way into the country since Wednesday, more than 2,000 over Thursday night alone, even after blocking most of the roads leading to its border posts with Serbia. It said it was letting most go on to Hungary and another neighboring EU state, Slovenia.

We cannot register and accommodate these people any longer,” said Croatian Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic.

I suggest Croatia should have thought of that two days ago when it foolishly stated  “migrants were welcome to pass through Croatian territory on their way to ultimate destinations in Germany or Scandinavia


If Croatia hands them off to Slovenia, what the hell is Slovenia going to do with them?

I happen to have the answer.

Yesterday, the Guardian reported Slovenia Offers Shelter for 5,000 Refugees.

Four hours ago, ABC News reported Slovenian Police Pepper Spray Migrants at Border.

Razor Fence


Walking Distance

Google Maps provides a Walking Perspective of the journey from Syria to Serbia.


The trip would cover 1,400 miles, taking an estimated 452 hours. At 25 miles a day (not realistically possible for kids or anyone in bad shape), it would take about 50 days.

And Serbia is not even the ultimate destination. Germany or Sweden is the goal. From Hungary, they would still have to get through Hungary and Austria, or the trifecta of Croatia, Slovenia, and Austria.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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September 18th, 2015

Posted In: Mish Talk

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