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November 17, 2017 | Tax Cuts for the Rich… Hallelujah!

BALTIMORE – Have we been too cynical? Yesterday, the House passed its big tax-cut bill. The Dow popped up 187 points on the news. A reporter asked us later: “Will the Dow go to 40,000?” Assuming a tax bill comes through the Senate and out of committee in more or less the same shape, it […]

November 16, 2017 | When the Robots Take Over

BALTIMORE – How about those techs! As Chris Lowe reported in yesterday’s Market Insight column, the eight most valuable tech companies in the world – Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google parent Alphabet, Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent – have added $1.7 trillion in market value this year. That’s more than Canada’s entire economy. And it exceeds the […]

November 15, 2017 | A Luddite’s Guide to the Future

BALTIMORE – We were disappointed to see the pedestal… naked… forlorn… its statue gone… its purpose defunct. For more than a century, the bronze statue of Supreme Court Justice Roger B. Taney – gravely pondering the weighty issues of the mid-19th century – graced the park. Now he is gone. Justice Taney’s statue in Baltimore […]

November 14, 2017 | One of the Funniest Shows in Modern Capitalism

BALTIMORE – On Monday, Caracas rolled out the red carpet – literally. In one of the funniest shows in modern capitalism, bondholders were invited to a special meeting in the Venezuelan capital. A few turned up. They wanted to know what to expect. The country is going broke – fast. Oil output is at a […]

November 13, 2017 | The Problem With Millennials

DELRAY BEACH, FLORIDA – “What’s wrong with them?” In front of us was a group of young women, tying their surfboards on top of their Jeep. At first glance, nothing at all. They had come from a nearby surf camp and were enjoying a girls-only holiday. Some were dressed in shorts and shirts… others, barely […]

November 10, 2017 | How the GOP Tax Plan Rips Off the Middle Class

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – Yesterday, Senate Republicans announced their proposed tax reform measures. Instead of eliminating the inheritance tax – like the House version does – the Senate proposal would increase the exemption by $5 million per person. And instead of cutting business taxes right away, the cuts wouldn’t happen until 2019. We never met […]

November 9, 2017 | Why Funerals Are Good for the Economy

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – “I wanted to build a little vacation cottage.” We were getting a tour of concrete and rebar. A colleague is building a house on the ocean. It seems to have gotten away from him. “Well…” he continued. “How many times am I going to build a vacation house in Nicaragua? “So, […]

November 8, 2017 | How Technology Poisoned the Future

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – Over the weekend, bitcoin rose to more than $7,500 – a 200% gain from when we bought in June. “Is that all?” replies a colleague. “I got into a bitcoin miner at 2 cents a share. It’s now trading at $7. “I’ll do the math for you. If you had put […]

November 7, 2017 | Trump Makes Swamp Critter New Fed Chief

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – If you run over a pedestrian in Washington, D.C., it might be wise to keep going. Because the person under your bumper could be a swamp rat. In fact, it could be Jerome Powell, whom President Trump just chose to replace Janet Yellen at the Fed.   —   Born in […]

November 6, 2017 | The Problem With 21st-Century Companies

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – We’re down in Nicaragua giving a little speech to a group of financial analysts and publishers. I’ll be sharing the full contents of the speech with members of our Inner Circle advisory soon. A view of the coastline from Rancho Santana, Nicaragua Paris was dead when we passed through on Saturday. It was […]

November 3, 2017 | The World’s Favorite Stock Is Doomed

POITOU, FRANCE – “The Age of Easy Money Is Nearly Over,” reads a headline at Bloomberg. Oh yeah? We suspect that it has hardly begun… stay tuned.   —   Destroying Capital In the meantime, we are exploring the past to get hints of the future. The future casts its shadow backward. If you think, […]

November 2, 2017 | A Sneak Peek at the Economy of Tomorrow

POITOU, FRANCE – We have been in almost constant motion for the last 10 days or so. It’s nice to be back at home… if only for a few days. One of the pretensions of modern design is that things have to be different… modern… and new. Progress, almost everyone believes, is undeniable and unarguably […]

November 1, 2017 | Get Ready for the “Crack-Up Boom”

POITOU, FRANCE – For nearly two decades, the world’s central banks have labored hard, sweating to coax more digital money out of a stony and grudging economy. More than $20 trillion did they bring forth via QE (buying stocks and bonds with newly created cash) – a mighty sum indeed. But that is past. It […]

October 30, 2017 | When Did Americans Become the Bad Guys?

I found my thrill On Blueberry Hill On Blueberry Hill When I found you The moon stood still On Blueberry Hill And lingered until My dream came true – “Blueberry Hill,” Fats Domino PARIS – Fats Domino died last week. RIP. Everything changes. A generation gives way. A new one takes over. The moon doesn’t […]

October 26, 2017 | Is Your ZIP Code Killing You?

PORTO, PORTUGAL – “I wonder what the suicide rate is in this hotel?” We posed the question this morning, not expecting an answer. We had been wandering the dark, labyrinthine corridors in search of an elevator. It is a newish place, designed to be cool. Minimalist. Hip. Little light – either natural or artificial. It’s […]

October 25, 2017 | Japan: The Land That Forgot Time

LISBON, PORTUGAL – In Japan, incumbent prime minister Shinzō Abe has won a new super majority in parliament. And you know what that means? More laughs.     Dumbbell Policies Yes, the whole world is doubling down on dumbbell policies that don’t work. (At least, they don’t work for creating honest wealth. They work perfectly […]

October 24, 2017 | A Cynic’s Guide to Crypto Investing

LISBON, PORTUGAL – It is still warm here in Lisbon. Like summer. We’re staying at a hotel on the Avenida da Liberdade, with large plane trees shading the wide sidewalks and grand old buildings lining the streets. Bill explores the shaded streets of Lisbon Meanwhile… Bitcoin went over $6,000 on Sunday and then fell on […]

October 23, 2017 | The White House Has Lost Control

LISBON, PORTUGAL – Lisbon is a beautiful city. It was so poor and so remote, it missed out on the modernization that ruined many other cities in Europe. Wisely neutral during World War I and World War II, it wasn’t bombed either. Even now, after the spread of cheap euro finance has made it richer, […]

October 20, 2017 | The Swamp Has Won

POITOU, FRANCE – Autumn has finally imposed itself. The yellow and gold leaves drift down… morning fog rises… and the remains of the day grow cold. We now have a fire in the fireplace all day long. A couple of oak trees had to come down. They were almost dead. And an old araucaria threatened to fall […]

October 19, 2017 | Donald Trump: The First “Brand” President

POITOU, FRANCE – “Trump did this…” “Trump did that…” The news media can barely keep up with him. Sometimes, the calumnies against the president are idle gossip. Sometimes, they greatly understate the magnitude of the crime. He “disrespects” a dead soldier, says one report. He “thinks he owns a Renoir,” says another. He bombs a […]

October 18, 2017 | The Real Deep State Candidate

PARIS – Yesterday, we described what we believe is the true source of today’s bubbly markets: fake money from the Deep State’s finance arm, central banks. Today, we connect more dots. Specifically, we explore why the stock market celebrated after “The Donald” was elected… what role he plays in the Greatest Show on Earth… and […]

October 17, 2017 | How This Bull Market Ends

PARIS – Whoa! Bitcoin is up $1,457 since the start of the month; at writing, one bitcoin sells for $5,670. Look at the Dow. It is on its way to 23,000. And don’t even mention the tech darlings – Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Amazon, Google, Tesla, Snap, etc. (More on the rise of tech in today’s […]

October 16, 2017 | Our Plan to Save the Ranch

PARIS – “Don’t worry. We’re not hysterical like you North Americans.” We had arrived at the security gate at Salta Airport on our trip back from the ranch to Buenos Aires, with an onward ticket to Paris, France. In our hands was a bottle of our own wine – the new reserva that we had kept in […]

October 11, 2017 | Is Trump a Genius?

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – What a marvelous show! We don’t know what’s funnier: watching “The Donald”… or watching the media try to make sense of him. On this occasion, the media is right. Challenging Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to an IQ contest is likely to be embarrassing for both of them. — One-Man Circus We […]

October 10, 2017 | Trapped in an Argentine River

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – “Damn!” Ramón had been so absorbed in laying out his plans for our new farm that he forgot to put the truck into 4-wheel drive. When he finally realized he needed it, it was too late. The water was already up to the doors and the wheels were deep in the mud. […]

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