-30- The end of a story

In days past, before internet and other instant communication devices, reporters or columnists filing stories by wire service would use the figure -30- to denote the end of the story so editors would know that they had the complete filing.

-30- among older reporters and columnists also began to be known in those days as the end of an era, an end of a career as they signed off for the last time. Today we say -30- to our career which spans over 40 years in this and related businesses and write for the last time in this our final go at the World Market Update.

Some personal comments at the end of today's tome.

Bullish Canada

With oil prices back up this morning after a dreadful explosion and fire that ripped into the Enbridge pipelines that take nearly 20% of U.S. imports of energy product from Canada to the U.S., we though that this last column should restate our bullish outlook on Canada, the driving message of our public presentations over the last several years.

We start with energy because the vast reserves of oil and natural gas in the ground will some day make Canada the world's largest supplier of fossil fuels to the world.

When the method of efficiently extracting the oil reserves from the Canadian oil sands is perfected, and that could be a few years down the road, Canada will even match or surpass the likes of Saudi Arabia and become one of the richest nations on earth because of our ability to safely produce and refine energy products whose world demand continues to grow at record levels year over year.

The world will continue to need our commodities whether the aforementioned energy products, base metals, lumber, precious metals, water, power from the likes of Quebec (and B.C. once again as more hydro is produced in the decades to come), grains from the prairies, and the list goes on.

The emersion of Asia and India onto the economic scene in the past decade has put an insatiable demand on the commodity markets that will in fact never be quelled.

Their new economies, which are infant compared to North America and those of Europe, are now showing that as they mature, both for export and now especially for internal demand, will not stop growing and will eventually take the price of all they require in these markets to price levels never before imagined.

Who in the late nineties would have thought that oil at $9 a barrel would be pushing $100 today? Or copper at 60 cent a pound in 1998 that has been over $4 this year and today trades over three.

The list is endless and includes most all the base metals used in the manufacturing of just about everything from cellular phones to electronic devices to automobiles. Base metals that come from Canada.

Gold which was just $250 per ounce back at the turn of the decade and flirted with its 1980 high of $850 is a major product of the Canadian mining industry and the demand in China and especially India has a shortfall in production trying to feed a new middle class Asian market whose demand is skyrocketing year over year.

Add to that buyers world wide that are using the yellow metal as a store of value against fiat currencies, especially the failing American dollar and in the years to come, the $800 price may look like the $35 price for an ounce of gold back in 1971.

Canada is the only country in the G-8 that does not have a budget deficit; in fact in the past 10 years where the U.S. national debt has almost doubled to over $9 trillion, Canada has actually paid off over $92 billion on our sovereign debt.

Canada is going to become the lowest taxed regime corporately in the industrialized world, with federal income tax on businesses coming down to 15% in the next five years; an invitation for industries and corporations of world to set up shop in our country.

To put it succinctly, Canada is and will more so become the darling of the investment world. We have seen it burgeon since 2002 when the Canadian dollar started to turn from the record lows all the way up to this past month when we reach modern day record highs. That is the world knocking on our door to buy "us" and having to buy Canadian dollars to do so.

Canada is safe geo-politically, has a stable government, and invites the world to our doorstep.

The next several months, or even a year or two, might be rocky with the subprime and credit mess to which the U.S. has dragged us all in, but once that plays through the system, and it will, the future belongs to Canada.

Our dollar will once again go back past the recent highs of November and could in years to come go to $1.20 or $1.30 U.S., or even higher as our economy explodes as the world demands what we produce.

We were bullish back in 2004 when we started our public pronouncements; we were bullish in April 2005 when we stood in Winnipeg and forecast a Canadian dollar at par. Every presentation since then it has been our major theme and for good reason.

The 21st century belongs to Canada.

A personal note

The last 17 years have seen us in the currency business although our roots go back to the gold bullion business which we commenced in 1968, and the coin business when we started, which dates back to 1963.

Beginning in 1984 broadcast, and then television, and writing made the career varied, but they all tied together whether commenting on business on the CORUS radio network and their flagship station CKNW in Vancouver (beginning in 1991), analysis for both Global and CTV, or the writing of the World Market Update which we took over in August of 2004.

Back then the WMU had but 704 subscribers, today we are proud to say we are leaving with a healthy daily subscriber list of 4774.

It has been fun, sometimes a little overwhelming, always challenging, to keep up to the moving markets, and a little tiring in the past few years with the 5:00 a.m. wakeup call to scribe some 900-1200 words each day to keep our subscribers abreast of what we thought the salient economic news of the day.

It was always our own take on the markets, and although our focus was generally related to currencies, we certainly had a free hand to comment both on the economic front or politically when moved to do so.

It will be tough to move to the sidelines, but are confident that those at Custom House who now produce a myriad of World Market Updates for clients and readers world wide will find within their walls a more than suitable replacement who will keep our readers up to date.

Thanks have to go to my family who put up with all the early mornings; to the loyal staff with whom we worked at Custom House and our own currency business before that, and all the friends and readers we have encountered in the past 2+ decades.

It is now time to do a little pause and reflect and know that there will be more challenges and opportunities awaiting, and look forward to finally getting a little more sleep.

In recent months my life has changed personally as many readers are aware, and I now look forward to the new challenges and relationships that beckon.

We will still be available for a week or two either to the editor or mlevy@customhouse.com to answer the emails and queries that come almost day to day.

Thank you.

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