July 7, 2020 | Dow’s Path to New Record Highs

Bulls now have a path to 3392 in the E-Mini S&Ps, just a few points below the all-time high recorded on February 20. A rally to the target would equate to around 30,000 for the Dow Industrials, a number that seems no less absurd now than in late March as the broad averages began a trampoline bounce from pandemic lows. The news hasn’t improved, nor have earnings, making this rally arguably the most peculiar in stock-market history. Fed stimulus on an unprecedented scale has made it happen, even if it seems doubtful that trillions in funny money ginned up by the Wizards will put the U.S. economy on a sustainable path to recovery.

Asian stocks have gone bananas as well, which is ironic since it is happening just as top U.S. leaders, including VP Mike Pence, have begun to acknowledge the obvious — that the U.S. and China have begun a Cold War likely to stoke intense hostilities for years or even decades to come. The difference between this one and the one with Russia is that most Americans, along with much of the free world, seem to understand that Chinese leaders are lying, thieving, double-dealing scumbags. It remains to be seen whether U.S. voters will go along with the arms build-up that will be necessary to prevent China from dominating the skies and the seas sufficiently to squeeze the U.S. in every way possible. Regardless, the prospect of deal with this threat will raise the stakes even higher in November.

Rick Ackerman July 7th, 2020

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