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November 7, 2017 | Copper Traders Place Huge Way-Out-Of-The-Money Calls That Price Will Rise 50% in 2018

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Traders have spent about $4.5 million on call options wagering on copper climbing above $10,000 a metric ton by December 2018. That would be a rally of 46%. But to make a profit, held to completion, the price needs to rise even more.

The frenzy in the copper market is luring traders to take high-flying bets that prices are headed back toward a record.

Call options wagering on copper climbing above $10,000 a metric ton by December 2018 have started trading during the past two weeks, London Metal Exchange data show. In total, traders have spent about $4.5 million on the contracts.

Copper hasn’t traded at those levels since 2011, the peak of a commodities boom mainly fueled by a roaring economy in China, the biggest user. The bulk of the wagers came last week during the mining industry’s annual gathering in London and suggests traders are becoming increasingly bullish on demand driven by electric cars.

“It’s like a lottery ticket,” said Leon Westgate, a senior analyst for base metals and bulks at Levmet U.K. Ltd., said by phone on Tuesday. But “I can understand the rationale, because you can make a pretty strong argument for much higher prices.”

Chilean miner Codelco said prices could test record highs above $10,000 a ton as the supply-demand balance shifts to “substantial” deficits from 2018. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. also predicts the metal will continue to benefit from synchronized global growth.

Copper is up 24 percent this year at $6,866 a ton on the LME, and last month reached a three-year high.

The traders will be rewarded handsomely if the options expire in the money. They bought $2.5 million of options on Thursday that would pay out about $10 million if copper reaches $10,200 by December next year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The options would be worth $28.8 million if copper hits $10,500.

What If?

If copper closes at $10,000 or less, the traders will suffer a 100% loss.

I am bullish on electric cars but not by 2018. Add another four years. In the interim, a recession could easily smash copper prices.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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November 7th, 2017

Posted In: Mish Talk

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