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November 5, 2017 | Welcome to the Trump Fed: Dudley Do-No-Right to Retire Early

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is set to announce he will retire next year, about six months earlier than scheduled, adding to an unusual wave of turnover among the central bank’s top monetary and regulatory decision makers and ushering in new uncertainty about its policy cour

Just last month, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer stepped down and Randal Quarles, Mr. Trump’s first nominee to the Fed’s Washington-based board of governors, took office. Three other seats on the seven-member board are also open, giving the president an opportunity to remake its policy-making team.

A fourth seat on the board would open if Ms. Yellen decides to leave after ceding the helm as chairwoman. She could stay on as a governor in a term that extends to 2024.

The New York Fed president is traditionally one of the central bank’s most powerful policy makers. This person serves as vice chairman of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee and leads the supervision of some of the nation’s biggest financial firms.

Mr. Dudley, a former Goldman Sachs chief economist, started at the New York Fed in 2007, running the part of the institution that deals directly with financial markets to implement monetary policy. Many of his predecessors had markets experience.

If that tradition continues, contenders for the job include Simon Potter, who now runs the bank’s markets desk, as well as D.E. Shaw’s Brian Sack, who held that job before Mr. Potter.

Ms. Yellen, Mr. Fischer and Mr. Dudley worked closely together in recent years in deciding when and how to begin gradually reversing the Fed’s crisis-era stimulus policies as the economy healed.

The trio advocated keeping short-term interest rates historically low to encourage hiring and growth, but also has nudged them gently higher since late 2015 to prevent the economy from overheating.

Question of the Day

Will Trump’s appointees do any better than the prior set of bubble-blowing academics?

I doubt it, but we are about to find out.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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November 5th, 2017

Posted In: Mish Talk

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