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August 12, 2017 | December Rate Hike Odds Drop to 35.9%, Rate Cut Odds 2.6%: No Hike Until June 2018?

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

For the first time in a long time, CME Fedwatch shows the odds of a rate cut in December rose considerably above zero. Considerable means 2.6%.

Yes, that’s a long shot, but cut odds were zero on Thursday, zero a week ago, and zero a month ago.

Moreover, rate hike odds which a week ago were over 53.2% are now down to 35.9%.

December Rate Hike Odds

May 2018 Rate Hike Odds

No Hike Until June 2018?

Don’t assume stocks will retain an upward bias if the Fed does hold off, or even cuts.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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August 12th, 2017

Posted In: Mish Talk

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