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May 17, 2017 | The Money Show, Las Vegas (May 15 – 18), What was the Message?

Don Swenson

Donald B. Swenson: Born January 24, 1943, Roseau, Minnesota. Graduated H.S. 1961, Moorhead High, Minnesota. Graduated College 1968, Moorhead State University, Minnesota. Designated member of Appraisal Institute (MAI), 1974. Employed with Western Life Insurance Company, 1968 – 71; Iowa Securities Company, 1971 – 73; American Appraisal Company, 1974 – 81. Part-time teacher/valuation consultant/bartender, 1979 – 2008 (taught workshops at Waukesha County Technical Institute, Wi. and Madison Area Technical College, Wi.). Retired 2008 (part time teacher/blogger), AZ. Self educated economist/philosopher/theologian: http://kingdomecon.wordpress.com.

After attending the 2017 Money Show, I can summarize the general sentiment from the crowd and the speakers for your consideration. Approximately 5,000 investors were in attendance at Caesars Palace, Las Vegas, for this 2017 Money Show Conference. Some of the speakers included Steve Forbes, Mark Skousen, Steven Moore, Wayne Root, Louis Navellier, Peter Schiff, Jim Stack, and a host of others (some 100+) with various perspectives on the issues. Basically, the Bull and Bear debate revealed the sentiment of the 5,000 via a show of hands. My estimate is that 35% of this crowd were Bears and 65% were Bulls. The general perspectives of the experts could also fit into this percentage. Some of the issues which were discussed were:

How much longer can the current Bull in stocks continue? (for another 6 months to 6 years were the views of many of the experts). The hard-core Bears, however, think that our markets are already in recession mode. The views of Peter Schiff mostly represented the Bear point-of-view. When the correction starts, how much of a correction do the experts expect? The general view was from 20 to 50% of the eventual High. Most every expert envisioned many ‘risks’ and ‘uncertainties’ which are now catalysts for setting off the next serious correction. The Trump risk (confusion with general confidence), the geopolitical risks (war), the investor confidence risk (sentiment currently reveals extreme confidence), the length of expansion risk (now 8.1 years/2nd longest in history), the dollar risk (a reset could develop), the interest rate risk (continuing increases will set off debt and affordability issues), and the bubble risks (many sectors are currently revealing bubble characteristics).

None of the Bull speakers seemed to think that any serious dangers exist as of today, however. The Bear speakers mostly recognized that no recession risk currently exists but that warning signs are everywhere. My general sense is that the mood of the crowd would change from speaker to speaker. This means that this crowd of 5,000 had no firm convictions…just wishful thinking and hope (which was based upon the view that the bubble must continue so that Trump can implement his new model for the markets). The tax cuts, the new healthcare program, the new confidence feelings, and the general view that jobs and money will be repatriated to America will eventually create a new prosperity for all Americans. This sentiment (among investors) is still strong even though there is slim evidence that any of this agenda will actually become reality. If this Trump agenda fails by the end of 2017, then many Bulls would change their tune about the consequences which would develop.

My personal view is that our Central Banks will have a major hand in what will develop within the next few weeks and months. None of the experts seemed to have any knowledge about the impact of Central Bank manipulations within our markets. Also, few to none had any understanding of our digital economy and the major changes which have taken place within trading these past 15+ years. The assumptions of the experts is that our digital economy is merely a continuation of traditional investing and that supply and demand (as traditionally interpreted) still holds for all investing. Capitalism has not changed in the minds of these experts and digital trading with robots and high frequency trading have not changed how the markets respond. Personally, I think all these experts need education on historical Capitalism as compared to Digital Central Bank Finance. None seemed to understand the manipulations now taking place via Central Bank actions within our markets.

Anyway, the consensus view is that NO recession is immanent and that NO correction is near as of today. Buy and invest and ASSUME that the BULL will continue for the time being. That was the consensus of the crowd and the experts at this Money Show Conference. Our corporations will continue to borrow and buy back their stocks to pump up earnings/share. Interest rates are still at historic lows and this means that the wealthy will continue to prosper and the stock and bond markets will continue to flourish. Credit will now flow to new borrowers and spenders as Mr. Trump has created new ‘confidence’ within all our markets. Expect a substantial tax cut soon and savings in healthcare as the Trump agenda is implemented. Confidence will continue for much of 2017 and after. That seems to be the general message. Enjoy this report and assume that the experts know what they are talking about. I have my doubts! I am: https://kingdomecon.wordpress.com.

P.S. This year the Money Show had a metals day where speakers voiced their opinions on the gold/silver issues. Pamela Aden, Brien Lundin, David Morgan, Greg McCoach, Omar Ayales, and a few others presented the case for getting into gold and silver investments (physical and stocks) as the market has likely turned in their favor going forward. Pamela voiced the view that buy and hold is a good strategy for the next few years. Greg McCoach voiced the view that $10,000 gold is a given now that our dollar is trash. Overall, the views of these experts is that now is an ideal time to start accumulating gold and silver for the difficult days ahead. Basically, I would agree with this advice. Peter Schiff was another speaker who desired to promote precious metals for investors now that our Fed has destroyed most of our markets. He and a few others drew large crowds for their presentations.

In conclusion, I would suggest that difficult days are coming as all our global markets are mostly Ponzi markets. At some point, all these markets need to crash and burn so that a NEW financial system can emerge. Let it start now! Watch the markets for further clues on the direction that is emerging!

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May 17th, 2017

Posted In: Kingdom Economics

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