February 16, 2017 | The Yellow Flag Is Out
The Dow Industrial Average now sits within 429 points of a potentially very important ‘Hidden Pivot’ target at 21,049 that was first signaled when the Dow hit 18675 back in November. The target is derived from purely technical calculations, and when I first aired it my gut feeling was that it seemed unlikely to be reached. However, I’ve learned over time to ignore mere feelings and instead trust the charts, especially when they seem to conflict with logic and ‘fundamentals’. That is the case now, in the extreme. A real estate bust is taking shape and stocks have already discounted the best we might hope for, economically speaking, from Trump’s first year. It is also a concern that AMZN, which I rank as THE most important stock market bellwether, is closing on a potentially very important rally target (see my tout below). Although there is still some upside to be milked from the aging bull market, I have unfurled the yellow flag nonetheless — for purely technical reasons. Let buyers beware.