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November 5, 2016 | Trump Ahead in New Hampshire According to Real Clear Politics; Nate Silver vs. RCP

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

With just two days remaining ahead of Election Tuesday, Donald Trump has evened the race.

Nate Silver has Trump ahead in Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, but not New Hampshire.

Real Clear Politics has Trump ahead in Nevada, North Carolina, and New Hampshire but not Florida.

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Nate Silver New Hampshire

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Nate Silver New Hampshire Polls

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As discussed previously, dated polls should be discarded. And that Survey Monkey poll is so out of line with everything else, I suspect it is hugely flawed.

Real Clear Politics Battleground States

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RCP New Hampshire

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There is a strong difference of opinion regarding New Hampshire. I believe RCP has this correct.

There is one more twist. Although RCP and Silver have Nevada going for Trump, The Hill reports Expert: Trump ‘needs a miracle’ in Nevada after early voting boom

A longtime Nevada political analyst says it will be “nearly impossible” for Donald Trump to pull out a victory in the state after after Democrats dominated early voting with a record turnout.

Democrats are leading Republicans by thousands of votes in early voting, including Clark County, which encompasses Las Vegas, Jon Ralston wrote Saturday on his ABC 13 blog.

“Trump’s path was nearly impossible, as I have been telling you, before what happened in Clark County on Friday,” Ralston said.

“But now [Trump] needs a Miracle in Vegas on Election Day — and a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl championship is more likely — to turn this around.”

Ralston added that such a massive Democratic turnout will also cause a “ripple effect” that will have damaging implications for downballot GOP candidates.

“The ripple effect down the ticket probably will cost the Republicans Harry Reid’s Senate seat, two GOP House seats and control of the Legislature,” he said.

I suspect the above analysis is bogus but we cannot be sure.

If Trump does win North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, and Nevada, he will win. My off the cuff analysis suggests he is ahead in those states, but some of them are very close.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

November 5th, 2016

Posted In: Mish Talk

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